Reminder

Our first meeting will be held THIS WEDNESDAY, that is tomorrow, the 16th, in Mr. V's room, 201. Hope to see you all there!

September 11 Commemoration

The September 11 Commemoration ceremony was held this morning in front of the flagpole. Thank you to everyone who came, and hope to see you at our first meeting on wednesday in Mr. V's room.

Obama's Health Care Speech

If you haven't seen it already, President Obama gave a fantastic, stirring speech calling for health care reform. I'll talk about what it means tomorrow, but for now, just watch the speech.

First Meeting

Our First Meeting is going to be next week on Wednesday the 16th. Come to Mr. V's Room at Lunch.

Glenn Beck and the Silly Season

August is the height of the so called “silly season” of news, so named because nothing tends to happen and yet news networks still need to be broadcasting something. This is the time for conspiracy theorists to shine. Thus far this year, there have been at least three major conspiracy theories that have been seriously advanced and given a large chunk of airtime. These are: The “birthers” and their idea that Obama was not born in the United States; The “death panels” and their idea that Obama’s Healthcare plan would impose mandatory euthanasia on senior citizens and people with diseases; and the most recent one, that Obama’s speech to schoolchildren is an attempt to indoctrinate the nation’s children into card-carrying socialists. It is also no surprise that these stories have been accompanied by other ideas of astounding stupidity, such as “Canadians and British have to wait months for treatment” (which is not only untrue but ignores the fact that this is often the case in the United States), “there are FEMA work camps”, “we never landed on the moon”, and “Obama is a racist with a deep-seated hatred for white people”. Also not surprisingly, many of these opinions were expressed by Glenn Beck or given significant airtime on his show. Beck’s popularity has risen meteorically during this Silly Season, and Beck’s show has been given leeway to be even loonier than most of the shows on Fox News. Every time I have attempted to watch Beck’s show, I have had to turn the channel due to the prevalence of faulty logic, the constant attacks on anyone who disagrees with him, or the blatant lies that constantly spew out of Beck’s mouth.

But last night, as I listened to audio of Beck explaining how a State Department Official is a committed communist and will somehow turn the President into the same, I had a revelation. Glenn Beck is the boy who cried wolf. And the first time, we all listened. But by now, his constant cries have lost all meaning. Why should we believe the Republican wing nuts that this time they’ve got it right when their track record proves them as nothing but vehement Obama-haters who will seize any opportunity to make up a story aimed at destroying him and his ability to fix this country?

March 9: Worst Day of the Year

Why do I say this? Because on March 9, the Dow Jones hit a low that had not been seen since April of 1997. On the same day, the S&P 500 hit its own low, again not having been seen since 1997.

But fortunately, it's getting better. After the Dow bottomed out, it has risen up to about 9500, a gain of about 3,000 points. And the S&P has almost doubled its value between March 9 and today.

So, in 1/2 of a year, two major indicators of the country's current economic strength have been gaining strongly. Will this pattern continue? I believe the answer is yes.

Obama's Speeches

Obama is going to be giving two major speeches in the next week or so: an address to schoolchildren on the 8th, and a major health care speech to congress on the 9th.

The speech to schoolchildren has become a big issue mostly due to partisan politics. Disclaimer: The opinions I am about to express are about a tiny fringe group of Republicans. What I say here should NOT be taken as a comment on the Republican Party as a whole. That said, any Republicans who supports these idiots should leave the country.

Now, what have the idiots been saying? They want to keep their children home from school on the 8th so that Obama does not indoctrinate their children with socialism. These people are idiots. Even if you have political disagreements, at least have respect for the office of the presidency and the fact that Obama was elected to that office. The fact that these people cannot do this is a sad testimony on the state of our society. Because while these people may be fringe idiots, there are a lot of them, they are noisy, and many elected officials agree with them. When fringe idiots start to become as powerful as these are becoming, bipartisanship becomes impossible.

"As the father of four children, I am absolutely appalled that taxpayer dollars are being used to spread President Obama's socialist ideology" says Jim Greer, GOP Chairman of Florida."The idea that school children across our nation will be forced to watch the president justify his plans ... is not only infuriating, but goes against beliefs of the majority of Americans, while bypassing American parents through an invasive abuse of power."

Of course, these same people didn't object when George H.W. Bush gave this same sort of speech, or when Ronald Reagan included much more politically charged ideas than Obama likely will. It's a case of willful blindness--the Republicans have disagreed with Obama and the Democrats at every turn, and have earned their title as the "Party of No". They just want to disagree with Obama and criticize everything he does for political reasons.

The second speech that Obama will be giving is going to be a major address to congress, on the floor of the Senate chamber, talking about Universal Health Care. Obama is expected to spell out what he wants the plan to be and finally make himself involved in the debate. Personally, I think this is a good move. Until now, Obama has let Congress try and figure out a health care plan without direction from him. He's likely trying to avoid repeating the mistakes that Clinton made during the last serious push for universal health care, during which Clinton was seen by many as attempting to dictate everything about the plan, effectively leaving Congress out of the debate. But Obama's attempt to keep a distance has not worked in political terms, as he is too connected with healthcare, regardless of the fact that he hasn't really done any negotiating about the terms. And by keeping a distance, he has ended up letting Congress draft bills that are not satisfactory to him or most Americans. The speech on the 9th can be used to finally help healthcare gain momentum and pass, while making sure that it is a good bill.

First Meeting/September 11

Sadly, School Starts tomorrow for those of us at LCHS. No word yet on when the first meeting is going to be held, but as soon as I know I'll let you all know.

As you may or may not know, September 11 is Friday next week. The Young Republicans Club has organized a commemoration ceremony in the morning, from 7-7:40 on September 11. Please come out to honor the victims of that tragic day.

Firefighters and the State Budget

Over the last few days, we've seen some truly heroic bravery on the part of our California Firefighters fighting the Station Fire. We are all thankful for their efforts, especially those of us close to the fire whose houses were, in many cases, on the brink of destruction but saved by the brave firefighters.

So we all agree, we need to support our firefighters just like our troops, because in many ways firefighters are our troops, fighting wars every year against a very powerful foe. And supporting our firefighters includes monetary support so that they can buy the latest firefighting equipment and be provided with air support.

What this brings me to is a complaint about the Republicans we have in the State Assembly and Senate. In drafting the budget for this year, California Republicans somehow managed to force the Democrats to approve a budget of the sort that they would approve of. How could a minority force this on the majority? Because, under California Law, any budget needs the approval of 2/3 of the legislature. While the Democrats were in the majority, they still needed 2/3 of the vote, meaning at least a few Republicans. And the Republicans, in an amazing show of party unity, decided to veto any budget that included ANY new taxes. In other words, they wanted to close our record, highest in the nation 24 billion dollar deficit, without adding any new taxes. So the Democrats would have to find 24 billion dollars in cuts that the Republicans would agree to. That's right--not only did we have to cut a huge amount out of the state's expenditures, but it all had to be something the Republicans would agree to. This topsy-turvy world, in which the minority holds almost more power than the majority, was bound to force cuts in quite important things. Like fires. State workers--that includes firefighters-- have been forced to take a 5 % pay cut, AND there is now less money to spend for these brave people. California should change the law so that 50% of the state legislature needs to approve a budget for it to pass. That way, we would have more money to spend on services we truly appreciate and need--services like firefighters.

Am I missing something?

"Hi everybody, I know I am revisiting this topic so soon, that even I am left speechless. But the Democrats have countered my counter about the "Real" Economic Story. But what they left out was the main point (the Republican answer to the question) of every argument that I made and took the vulnerable part (the question) and argued against it. I don't know why I need to write a counter to his counter about my counter, because I explained everything in my previous statement. The Democrats just took the beginning of all of my arguements and made them sound bad, when the very answer came right after the section they attacked. This is just another way to prove how Democrats will try to indoctrinate the average American citizen by having you hear or read what they want you to hear or read. So, now I will ask again for the Democrats to reread what I wrote in whole. I ask you to read what I wrote as well and read their counter to my counter and how it pulls out the question and argues against it, instead of pulling out the Republican answer that I gave and responding to that.

The Young Republicans of La Canada Flintridge"

I'm now being told by this and the Republican President that I misunderstood his points, and didn't address his counters.

"Here is my counter, the $10 trillion is a number that accumulates after adding together all the promisies the government made whenever Democrats were in office such as Social Security during Franklin Roosevelt's presidency and Medicare during Lyndon Johnson's presidency."

And I countered that. If that wasn't what he wanted me to address, what was?

I find that it's the same sort of thing all the way down the line. His points may have more nuance in them than he shows. But I am not psychic, so I only address the points that are put out there. And I think I addressed all of his points. Read both, and see for yourself.

The Real Economic Story, Revisited

Yesterday, I made a post entitled "The Real Economic Story" in which I laid out why I believe Obama's policies are helping this country. Today, the La Canada Young Republicans have posted a counter to what I put forth, alleging that "most of it [my post] is just a lie". They put forth a number of counters to things I brought up, and I wish to explain more fully the things they have called into question.

The first thing their post addresses is the (approximately) 10 trillion dollar debt figure I mentioned, and the 482 billion dollar deficit for 2009 fiscal year. They claim that the 10 trillion "is a number that accumulates after adding together all the promisies the government made whenever Democrats were in office such as Social Security during Franklin Roosevelt's presidency and Medicare during Lyndon Johnson's presidency." First of all, the debt does not turn off when Republicans are in office. Second, the share of that debt that is made up by Obama is slight compared to Bush. Third, whenever we have budget surpluses, we lower this debt. The Republicans never had a surplus in the 8 years of the Bush Presidency. You may be asking, what is the difference between the debt and the deficit? The federal deficit/surplus is the amount of money being spent by the federal government for things like Social Security and the Iraq War, subtracted from the amount being made through taxes and other means. In other words, Revenue minus Expenses. When the amount of expenses is higher than the amount of revenue, we have a deficit. When we have more revenue than expenses, it is a surplus. All of the deficits and surpluses taken together are the national debt. During the Bush Years, the Debt went from 5.7 trillion in September of 2000 (the closest I could find, use it as a benchmark). In September 2004, the debt rose above 7 trillion. In October 2005, it rose above 8 trillion. In October 2008, it rose above 10 trillion. Taking these figures, you find that during Bush's presidency, the debt increased by approximately 4 billion dollars. Obama's presidency has raised the debt about 1 trillion dollars.

They also make the point that the Iraq War was necessary. Because we all know how dangerous all those WMD's we found in Iraq were. If you still think the Iraq War was necessary, I'm not going to waste breath arguing. I leave it up to you if it was really worth it to send over 4000 young men and women to their deaths for a lie?

I had said that investors preferred things like the Dow Jones to the GDP, because the GDP is so infrequent. The Republicans say "This is wrong because those investors do use the GDP, for goodness sake it is the economic chart for this country." This is just a misunderstanding. The GDP is calculated over a year's time, so investors don't sit around for a year to see where the economy is. They use the Dow, which is a representation of the economic strength of this country.

The Leading Indicator to which I refer is this one: The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™.

"Now, that "fact" about jobs, that more are being made the lost is a complete lie". And he's right, that is a lie. Thing is, I didn't say that. I said that right now, we are losing fewer jobs each month. SOON, we might see more being made than lost.

I think my favorite part is this sentence: " From September 2008 to February 2009 unemployment has risen from 6.2% to 8.1%." I remind you that the president from September 2008 to January 20, 2009, was George Bush. Thank you Mr. Bush for giving us these fabulous numbers.

The last part of their post is their own hypothetical situation to counter mine. I say the economy will continue improving, they say it won't. The best way to test this? Wait and see.

The Real Economic Story

EDITED: Deficit and Debt were being used incorrectly. I have changed this.

You may hear from some of your more Conservative friends (I sure do) that Obama's actions, such as the 787 billion dollar stimulus are hurting/are going to hurt the US economy, that unemployment is still bad and the economy isn't improving, that his policies are proving wrong liberal beliefs about economic policy and that the best alternative is their fiscal conservatism. Ignoring the blatant hypocrisy of the people who brought you 482 billion dollars in debt for the 2009 fiscal year, to a 10 trillion dollar debt, never produced a surplus, and gave us the Iraq War, there is another problem with this argument. It's just not true.

Most economic indicators are, in fact, up. The Dow Jones has improved from its low of 6547.05 on March 9 of this year to its present height of around 9500. Many companies have shed their toxic assets and are now ready for a new start (with more oversight and safer business practices), the leading economic indicator (a sort of forecast of things likely to come) improved, hourly earnings are up, and a host of other indicators are also trending positive.

"But," your conservative friend will be saying after you string this off. "But unemployment is still way up! That proves Obama's plan isn't working!" And to this, I say, not at all true.

There are three types of economic indicators--leading, current, and lagging. Imagine the economy as a roller coaster car on a track. The current indicator is often something like the Dow Jones (I like to use it because it's familiar to most people). That's the cart-- wherever the Dow is roughly corresponds to the economy at large (measured in GDP). The reason GDP isn't used is because it is too infrequent to be of much use. So as I said, the Dow is your car, showing you where the economy is. Now imagine two poles sticking out of the car, one in front, one in back. These are the leading and lagging indicators. The leading indicator is the pole in front. If one did not know where the roller coaster was headed, but saw whether the pole was going up or down, one would know where the cart was headed. Because the pole is far enough out, it is possible for the economy to still be going down while the leading indicator is going up. This means that the economy is in a shape like this one \/. The Dow in on the right side, still going down. But the leading indicator has already hit the upslope and is ascending while the Dow is descending.

Unemployment is the other kind of indicator, a lagging one. This is the pole sticking out of the back of our cart. It is possible for this pole to still be going down while the cart is going up. In other words, even during a recovery, if the lagging indicator lags far enough, it can be a year behind the current indicator. Unemployment was always a lagging indicator, and in recent recessions this trend has become more pronounced. Unemployment has stayed down for months after the recession ends. This is what we are seeing now. The economy went downwards, the leading indicator pulled up, the current indicator pulled up, and now we are waiting for the lagging to pull up. In fact, recently it has been, slowing the rate of job loss and thus trending upwards. Fairly soon, we may see a positive result, meaning more jobs are being created than lost. Once this happens, most people will finally see that Obama's plans have been working. Democrats will be cheered for pulling the economy back from the cliff, should widen margins in both house and senate, and Obama will coast to re-election in 2012.

Now, there is one last point our Conservative friend can make. That is that Obama's plans may lead to short term gains, but will mess up our economy to the point of ruin. Eventually, his ideas will backfire and America's economy will be destroyed.

There isn't any argument that you can make that will be convincing. The best evidence to support your position will be simple. Watch as Obama's policies continue to build back America's economy, better and stronger than it was before.

September 11 Commemoration Event

On September 11, the Young Republicans Club has organised a commemoration ceremony to honor the lives that were lost on that terrible day almost 8 years ago. They will never be forgotten.

All are invited to attend. The Democratic Club was unable to help with the preparations this year, but if anyone could come and help set up chairs and such, it would look good for our club. If you can't do that, please at least come out to listen to speeches by some local political figures.

Ted Kennedy has Died

The Liberal Lion of the Senate, one of the most respected members of that body, died last night at the age of 77. His ability to pass legislation and get things done while working with Republicans made him one of the best legislators and figures in the Senate. He will be missed.

Now, there are interesting political implications. Kennedy's life goal was to achieve Universal Health Care, and he died right before we have an opportunity to pass it. Failure to unify on one bill and message effectively is inexcusable and not only cheats Americans out of their right to Health Care, but also dishonors his memory. There really is no reason that we should fail in this goal.

Kennedy's death also leaves his Senate seat empty. Because of his illness, he had not been at the Capital since April, and thus had not been a Democratic vote to break filibusters. With his death, his seat is technically at risk, but this being Massachusetts we're talking about, the only question is how long until his replacement arrives.

What does everyone else think?

La Canada Young Democrats

This blog will be used as a way to communicate with members of the club. I will also be providing political commentary on the issues of the moment. A forum with the Young Republicans is under consideration, until then post your opinions in the comments section. We hope to see you all at our first meeting (time to be determined).